Monsoon is likely to be 96 per cent of the long period average
Globally averaged temperatures in 2017 were 0.90 degree Celsius warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. That is second only to global temperatures in 2016.
With temperatures remaining above normal since November, this winter could well be the warmest ever recorded not only in North India, but across the country.
The warmest six years have all been since 2015, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 being the top three. The differences in average global temperatures among the three warmest years are indistinguishably small. The average global temperature in 2020 was about 14.9C, 1.2 ( 0.1) C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) level.
India will receive normal monsoon this season, country's meteorological department said on Wednesday in its forecast for the Southwest monsoon that covers 75 per cent of the country, and thereby may bring much-needed respite to the economy, which is reeling under the catastrophic effect of the Covid-19 pandemic.
"The season averaged maximum temperatures in Himachal Pradesh, West Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Arunachal Pradesh are likely to be higher than normal by 0.5-1.0 degree Celsius," the Met department has said in its forecast.
Heatwave conditions are expected over northwest India during the next five days, with Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi predicted to bear the maximum impact, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.
'Because of global warming, the chances of heatwaves like this are much higher.'
Renewed inflationary pressures, led by a spike in prices of vegetables and cereals, have cast a spell on the equity markets in the past month. The BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have declined up to 2 per cent each during the period, clipping the 13 per cent rally from the March lows, shows data from ACE Equity. Investors typically consider shares of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies as defensive bets, putting their weight behind them in a falling market.
'In case the El Nino pattern plays out negatively and/or the political situation becomes messy, we may see markets correcting and waiting for the situation to become clear by early/mid-2024.'
India experienced its second-hottest quarter from June to August this year since 1970, with over one-third of the country's population enduring at least seven days of dangerous heat, according to a new report by a United States-based group of climate scientists and communicators.
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the inflation forecast for 2023-24 at 5.4 per cent, and vowed to take timely measures to prevent any spillovers of global food and fuel price shocks. Stressing that the Reserve Bank has identified high inflation as a major risk to macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth, Governor Shaktikanta Das said the September retail inflation number may be lower than August and July prints. The headline inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated to 4.6 per cent in first quarter of 2023-24 as compared to 7.3 per cent in the same period a year ago.
Here's a map showing the monsoon situation across the country.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday marginally lowered its inflation projection for the current financial year to 5.1 per cent, as Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank's monetary policy actions are yielding the desired results. In April, the Reserve Bank had estimated the consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation at 5.2 per cent during the fiscal 2023-24. CPI inflation fell sharply to 4.7 per cent in April 2023, from 6.4 per cent in February, on the back of favourable base effects, with softening observed across all the three major groups.
Here's a map showing the monsoon situation across the country.
The record temperatures in May were accompanied by other extreme events, including very heavy precipitation in parts of Europe and the southern US, and widespread and severe coral reef bleaching.
Markets ended lower with private banking majors and index heavyweights ITC and RIL leading the decline.
On the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures, said the Reserve Bank's annual report released on Tuesday. It, however, added that slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility following new stress events in the global financial system could pose downside risks to growth. "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures," it said.
Should Modi win the elections, his government will face its first credibility test with markets when he delivers a budget.
'The last time we had such a late withdrawal of monsoon was in 1960 or so.'
The heat wave is likely to impact parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal, the Met office said.
All parts except Northeast may get below-normal rain; govt reiterates assurance on preparations.
A delay in rains for monsoon-dependent India could pose challenges for the country's next government, possibly pushing up inflation and denting economic growth.
'All El Ninos are not associated with the deficient monsoon.'
The monsoon has finally brought back smiles to the faces of people, especially farmers, of India.
Gold purchases have risen after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government lifted the restrictions imposed on imports in 2013.
With El Nino emerging, forecasts rainfall at 95% of long-period average.
As the kharif sowing season exceeds two months, no crop has managed to reach the normal area of cultivation (average of the past five years), except for sugarcane, cotton and jute.
India will be able to manage potential inflationary pressures if forecasts of sub-par monsoon
Prime Minister Modi last week called for optimal grain storage, fire audits and mock drills in hospitals as preparations for the harsh summer forecast by the meteorological department.
While weather forecasters remain divided on how the monsoons will play out in India over the next few months, analysts believe the news at the current juncture - at best - can trigger a knee-jerk reaction in the markets. They believe it is too early to say whether the sub-par monsoon on account of El Nino can seriously dent the market sentiment in the short-to-medium term. "These are just initial forecasts and we will have another round / status update from the weather forecasters a month down the line.
The IMD defines a normal monsoon as one which delivers between 96 and 104 per cent of the 50-year average rainfall for the season.
India staring at first drought in six years.
'There is no mechanism to understand how things would evolve'.
Several leading scientists, academicians, and agriculturalists have called for raising government support for research and development to make Indian agriculture future-ready.
India is likely to clock a GDP growth of 5.5 per cent during the current financial year provided there is normal monsoon and stable government at the centre, says a D&B report.
A below-normal monsoon can bring down India's GDP growth by 0.50-0.75 per cent this financial year, forcing the Reserve Bank to delay rate cuts to 2015, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) said.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday retained India's growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6.3 per cent citing economic resilience despite tighter monetary policy and exports weakness, but upped year-end inflation projection on El Nino threat. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal on strong services sector activity and robust demand. "The Indian economy continues to show resilience despite tighter monetary policy and weakness in exports, with growth outpacing other countries in the region," Fitch said, while projecting 6.3 per cent growth for current fiscal (April-March), and 6.5 per cent for next fiscal.
Most climate models indicate that surface air temperature will increase with rise in green house gases over the Indian region, which would be accompanied by an increase in monsoon activity.
